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Autocorrelation at lag 1 but scatterplot shows no linear relationship

Discussion in 'Education' started by UDE_Student, Oct 8, 2018.

  1. UDE_Student

    UDE_Student Guest

    I have a time series consisting of 490 days and for each day I have the residual of a forecasting model. I wanted to check if the residuals somehow correlate and calculated the ACF at lag 1 which is acf(1)=0.42 Here is the ACF plot: [​IMG]

    Now I wanted to check the linear relationship between lag=0 (denoted as x1 in the scatterplot) and lag=1 (x2 in the scatterplot) so I plotted a scatterplot, but I don't see any linear relationship. Why do I have a correlation of 0.42 at lag 1 but I don't see the linearity between lag 0 and 1?

    Am I missing a point here?

    Update: I uploaded a CSV file with the time series here


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